Market Forecast: Holiday Shortened Week Packed With Geopolitical Shifts, Earnings and Macro Data

Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.

Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami.

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“This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge. Any significant escalation in tensions could trigger panic selling and volatility in global equity markets. The market will also be closely monitoring the movement of crude oil prices, which are often impacted by geopolitical events,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Investors will be watching for earnings reports from Infosys, Bajaj Auto, and Wipro later in the week, he said.

On the macroeconomic front, China’s GDP data, US retail sales figures, and movements in the US bond yields and the dollar index will be important factors influencing market sentiment, Meena added.

Shares of TCS will remain in focus on Monday. The company reported its January-March quarterly earnings on Friday.

The IT services major logged a 9 per cent growth in net profit at Rs 12,434 crore in the fourth quarter of FY24 due to strong domestic business even as the company struggled in its key markets overseas.

In the entire fiscal year, the Tata Group company’s net profit surged 9 per cent to Rs 45,908 crore, while the revenue went up to Rs 2,40,893 crore from Rs 2,25,458 crore a year ago.

“The outlook for the market will be guided by the major global and domestic economic data, India’s WPI inflation data and WPI manufacturing data, China GDP growth rate, US manufacturing production and US initial jobless claims,” Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said.

Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank’s target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday.

India’s industrial production growth accelerated to a four-month high of 5.7 per cent in February 2024 due to good performance of the mining sector, showed the government data released on Friday.

“Investors are closely monitoring Q4 earnings and geopolitical events, which are poised to shape market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd, said, while the Indian economy is on a firm footing, the spate of negative news, especially from the global front, would at times halt the Indian equities’ upward march.

Stock markets were closed on Thursday on account of Eid-Ul-Fitr.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex dipped marginally by 3.32 points after a record-breaking rally. The benchmark had settled at an all-time high of 75,038.15 on Wednesday. It had reached the lifetime peak of 75,124.28 on Tuesday.

(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – PTI)