Categories: Top Stories

India can’t match China’s past 8-10% growth, Morgan Stanley says

India is unlikely to achieve the 8%-10% economic growth rates that China pulled off over the long term, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist said, even though the investment bank remains optimistic about the South Asian nation’s prospects.
India’s economy will likely grow steadily at 6.5%-7% over the long term, Chetan Ahya said in interview Monday with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin.The South Asian nation is also far from replacing its bigger rival as a global manufacturing hub, he added.

China’s growth averaged 10% a year in the three decades after its economic reforms in 1978, official figures show.
Economic progress in India is being hamstrung by a lack of infrastructure, and a low skilled workforce, Ahya said. “Both these constraints make us believe that India’s growth is going to be strong, but at 6.5%-7% rather than 8%-10%,” he said.
Even so, Morgan Stanley remains upbeat about India’s prospects, and said in a recent report that the current expansion resembles that of the mid-2000s boom, fueled by rising investment.
Investment Is Fueling India’s Rapid Growth
India “will have its rightful place,” and early signs of the economy’s rise are visible in the increase in capital flows and the gain in India’s share of global foreign direct investment, he said. “But to say that India will replace China or compete very heavily with China in the manufacturing sector, we think that’s less likely,” he said.
“China is far more advanced” in manufacturing and getting into new industries such as renewable, space, and legacy semiconductors, Ahya said. “India is going to take time to get to that type of competitiveness,” he said.
India posted a growth rate of 8.4% in the final three months of 2023, although economists have raised questions about the strength of the data. Government officials have said the economy will likely grow 7% in the fiscal year that begins in April, after an expected expansion of 7.6% this financial year.
Ahya said strong growth may influence the timing of the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate cuts this year. While Morgan Stanley’s base case is still for a“shallow rate cut cycle” beginning in June, surprises in growth could lead to a “possibility that the RBI either delay the rate cut or probably not take it up at all.”
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has said he won’t be willing to cut rates unless inflation settles around the 4% target on a sustainable basis. Latest data for February showed inflation was still more than 1 percentage point higher than the target.

function loadGtagEvents(isGoogleCampaignActive) { if (!isGoogleCampaignActive) { return; } var id = document.getElementById('toi-plus-google-campaign'); if (id) { return; } (function(f, b, e, v, n, t, s) { t = b.createElement(e); t.async = !0; t.defer = !0; t.src = v; t.id = 'toi-plus-google-campaign'; s = b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(t, s); })(f, b, e, 'https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=AW-877820074', n, t, s); };

function loadSurvicateJs(allowedSurvicateSections = []){ const section = window.location.pathname.split('/')[1] const isHomePageAllowed = window.location.pathname === '/' && allowedSurvicateSections.includes('homepage')

if(allowedSurvicateSections.includes(section) || isHomePageAllowed){ (function(w) { var s = document.createElement('script'); s.src="https://survey.survicate.com/workspaces/0be6ae9845d14a7c8ff08a7a00bd9b21/web_surveys.js"; s.async = true; var e = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; e.parentNode.insertBefore(s, e); })(window); }

}

window.TimesApps = window.TimesApps || {}; var TimesApps = window.TimesApps; TimesApps.toiPlusEvents = function(config) { var isConfigAvailable = "toiplus_site_settings" in f && "isFBCampaignActive" in f.toiplus_site_settings && "isGoogleCampaignActive" in f.toiplus_site_settings; var isPrimeUser = window.isPrime; if (isConfigAvailable && !isPrimeUser) { loadGtagEvents(f.toiplus_site_settings.isGoogleCampaignActive); loadFBEvents(f.toiplus_site_settings.isFBCampaignActive); loadSurvicateJs(f.toiplus_site_settings.allowedSurvicateSections); } else { var JarvisUrl="https://vsp1jarvispvt.indiatimes.com/v1/feeds/toi_plus/site_settings/643526e21443833f0c454615?db_env=published"; window.getFromClient(JarvisUrl, function(config){ if (config) { loadGtagEvents(config?.isGoogleCampaignActive); loadFBEvents(config?.isFBCampaignActive); loadSurvicateJs(config?.allowedSurvicateSections); } }) } }; })( window, document, 'script', );

Source link

jaghit

Recent Posts

'मुख्यमंत्री कोविड-19 बाल सेवा योजना' के लिए नहीं है बजट? अब मंत्री नरेंद्र पटेल ने किया ये दावा

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Madhya Pradesh News Today:</strong> भारत सहित पूरी दुनिया ने 3 साल वैश्विक महामारी…

3 months ago

Inside Hina Khan’s Pre-Birthday Celebrations With Rocky Jaiswal And Mother In Goa

Hina Khan’s birthday is on October 2. (Photo Credits: Instagram)From a stunning view of her…

3 months ago

Swiggy IPO Gets Sebi Approval: All You Need to Know About Rs 11,000-Crore Issue

Food and grocery delivery major Swiggy has received markets regulator Sebi’s clearance to launch its…

3 months ago

‘Imprints of Make in India visible everywhere’: PM Modi lauds 10 years of flagship initiative | India News

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday lauded the efforts of each and every…

3 months ago

Waqf Amendment Bill JPC 1 Crore Emails Nishikant Dubey VHP Vinod Bansal Said it Email Jihad | वक्फ बिल पर 1 करोड़ से ज्यादा सुझाव: VHP बोली

Waqf Amendment Bill Email: वक्फ संशोधन बिल पर संयुक्त संसदीय समिति (जेपीसी) को सुझाव के लिए…

3 months ago

Georgia Meloni and Elon Musk date truth behind the viral photos

Meloni And Musk Viral Photos : दुनिया के सबसे अमीर शख्स एलन मस्क ज्यादातर किसी…

3 months ago